Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,662,302$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666,674.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666,674.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $98,220$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,933.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98,933.1\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,184,925$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,119$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(6.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,521.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,521.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,655$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(396 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,914.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,914.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,813$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,183$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,488.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,488.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $310$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(26.9 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(320.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,594$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,105$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,972.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 64.8)}}\) (asimptote \(123,972.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,633$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,580.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,580.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,020$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,073$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(993 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,659.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 54.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,659.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $460$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(72.2 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{467.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(467.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,328$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,189$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(78.5 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,263.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 78.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,263.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $182$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(14.9 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(259.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,534$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,947$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(363 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,925.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,925.5\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $82$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(15.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(82.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $161$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,983$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(42 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,348.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,348.7\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{266.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 89.7)}}\) (asimptote \(266.1\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,176$ on 2020-05-25
